Skip to main content
Advertisement
🏭 Industrial Real Estate Analysis

Industrial Real Estate Investment Calculator

Underwrite warehouse, distribution center, and cold storage acquisitions with NNN master lease structures — IRR, cash-on-cash, DSCR, and sensitivity analysis.

NNN / Triple-Net IRR Analysis Cap Rate Calculator Sensitivity Matrix
🏗️
Industrial Subtype
Select to load market-typical defaults
🏢
Property Details
Acquisition pricing and costs
$
%
$
🏦
Debt Financing
Permanent or bridge loan terms
%
%
yrs
yrs
📄
NNN Master Lease Terms
Tenant pays taxes, insurance & maintenance
$
%
$
%
📊
Exit / Disposition
yrs
%
%
Advertisement
📘
Industrial Cap Rate Reference
TypeCap Rate
Class A Bulk (Core)4.50–5.25%
Class B Multi-Tenant5.50–7.00%
Cold Storage5.00–6.50%
Last-Mile Urban4.00–5.50%
Secondary Market6.00–7.50%

Source: Market estimates, Q2 2026. View full market data →

Industrial Real Estate as an Investment Class

Industrial real estate — encompassing bulk distribution warehouses, last-mile logistics facilities, cold storage, and flex manufacturing space — has emerged as the highest-performing major commercial property type over the past decade. Driven by e-commerce growth, supply chain reshoring, and nearshoring trends, institutional demand for well-located industrial assets continues to outpace supply in major U.S. markets.

For investors, industrial assets offer a compelling combination of long lease terms (typically 5–15 years), minimal management burden under NNN structures, and strong rent growth tied to tight vacancy rates. The NNN lease structure means tenants bear all operating costs — taxes, insurance, and maintenance — leaving the property owner with a clean, predictable income stream.

Why Institutional Investors Prefer Industrial

  • Vacancy rates below 5% in most major markets as of 2026
  • Rent escalations of 3–4% annually built into most leases
  • E-commerce requires 3x more warehouse space than traditional retail
  • Limited new supply in urban infill and port-adjacent locations

Underwriting NNN Industrial Warehouse Acquisitions

The key metrics for industrial investment analysis are the going-in cap rate (Year 1 NOI / purchase price), levered IRR over the hold period, and exit cap rate assumption at disposition. For NNN industrial assets, the going-in cap rate effectively equals the initial yield since tenant expenses are fully passed through.

Most institutional underwriting models for industrial also factor in lease rollover risk — what happens when the current lease expires. Shorter remaining lease terms compress acquisition prices (wider cap rates) because buyers demand compensation for re-leasing risk. Assets with 10+ years of remaining WALT from creditworthy tenants command premium pricing.

Key Underwriting Metrics to Track

  • WALT: Weighted average lease term — longer WALT commands tighter cap rates
  • Tenant credit: Investment-grade tenants allow greater leverage and lower cap rates
  • Clear height: 32'+ clear height commands rent premium over older 24' stock
  • Dock doors: Ratio of dock-high doors to building square footage

Industrial Real Estate Cap Rates by Market (2026)

Cap rates for industrial real estate vary significantly by market, subtype, and lease term. Port-adjacent and urban infill logistics properties trade at the tightest cap rates due to supply constraints and last-mile demand. Secondary and tertiary markets offer wider going-in cap rates but potentially greater cap rate expansion risk at exit.

Market-by-Market Cap Rate Reference

  • Inland Empire (CA): 4.50–5.25% — nation's largest logistics hub
  • New Jersey / NYC Metro: 4.75–5.50% — port and last-mile premium
  • Chicago: 5.00–5.75% — central US distribution hub
  • Dallas / Fort Worth: 5.25–6.00% — strong rent growth corridor
  • Atlanta: 5.25–6.25% — Southeast distribution gateway
  • Phoenix: 5.50–6.25% — beneficiary of Sunbelt migration
  • Secondary markets: 6.00–7.50% — wider cap rates, less liquidity

Industrial Master Lease vs. Multi-Tenant Structures

The classic industrial NNN master lease involves a single creditworthy tenant occupying the entire building under one lease agreement. This structure is ideal for investors because it eliminates the leasing risk, management complexity, and credit diversification challenges of multi-tenant industrial parks. However, it also concentrates tenant credit risk in a single counterparty.

For sale-leaseback transactions, an operating company sells its facility to a real estate investor and simultaneously signs a long-term NNN master lease, freeing up capital while retaining operational use. These deals are extremely common in manufacturing, logistics, and distribution and often allow sellers to access capital at implicit cap rates tighter than they could achieve through refinancing alone.

Industrial Master Lease Structures

  • Absolute NNN: Tenant pays all costs; landlord receives net rent only
  • Modified NNN: Landlord retains roof and structure responsibility
  • Ground lease: Investor owns land only; tenant owns improvements
  • Sale-leaseback: Operator sells and leases back simultaneously

Frequently Asked Questions — Industrial Real Estate Calculator

What is a good IRR for industrial real estate?
Core NNN industrial investments with long WALT typically target levered IRRs of 8–12% and equity multiples of 1.5–1.8x over 7–10 year holds. Value-add industrial acquisitions targeting lease-up, repositioning, or redevelopment target 14–18% IRR with 2.0–2.5x equity multiples. The appropriate IRR target depends heavily on leverage, tenant credit quality, market liquidity, and remaining lease term.
How do I calculate NOI for an industrial warehouse?
For NNN industrial properties, NOI is simply the gross lease rent minus any landlord obligations (typically minimal under absolute NNN structures). If the lease is modified NNN, landlord costs such as roof reserves, structural maintenance, and property management should be deducted. For gross or modified gross leases, deduct all operating expenses including taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance before arriving at NOI.
What loan terms are available for industrial real estate?
Life insurance company loans offer the most attractive terms for stabilized NNN industrial assets: 60–70% LTV, 10-25 year terms, and fixed rates at tight spreads over Treasuries. CMBS conduit loans provide 65–75% LTV for creditworthy transactions. Regional banks offer 60–70% LTV for shorter terms (5–7 years). Bridge lenders provide 70–80% LTC for value-add acquisitions where permanent debt isn't yet appropriate.
How does cold storage differ from standard industrial investment?
Cold storage (refrigerated warehousing) is a specialized industrial subtype with significantly higher construction costs ($150–300/SF vs $80–120/SF for dry warehouse), specialized tenant requirements, and strong demand from food distribution, pharmaceuticals, and e-grocery operators. Cold storage cap rates are typically 25–75 bps tighter than comparable dry warehouse assets due to high replacement cost and supply constraints. Master lease cold storage transactions often involve sale-leasebacks with food distribution operators.
What is DSCR and why does it matter for industrial loans?
Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) measures NOI divided by annual debt service. Lenders require minimum DSCR of 1.20x–1.30x (life companies often 1.25x, CMBS typically 1.25x, banks 1.20x minimum). For NNN industrial assets, DSCR is straightforward because there are minimal landlord operating expenses. A higher DSCR means more cushion above the break-even point, allowing lenders to underwrite higher LTV ratios for creditworthy tenants.

Related Calculators

Advertisement